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Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation?

Summary: Assess readiness of learned cardinality estimators for production; static workloads yield gains, but training/inference costs are high. Dynamic updates hurt accuracy; sensitivity to correlation, skew, and domain shifts; emphasizes cost control and trustworthiness. (summarized by gpt-5-nano on Feb 09 2026)

Paper ID
12352
Venue
VLDB
Year
2021
Pagerank
0.00010848882
Overall Rank
1,699 | 88.20%
DOI
10.14778/3461535.3461552

Incoming Non-self Citations Over Time

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Incoming Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 60 citing papers.

Rank Citing Paper Year Venue Pagerank
1,638 Cardinality Estimation in DBMS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Evaluation 2022 VLDB 0.00011050093
2,090 Balsa: Learning a Query Optimizer Without Expert Demonstrations 2022 SIGMOD 9.5668285e-05
2,769 FLAT: Fast, Lightweight and Accurate Method for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 8.1512848e-05
2,781 Flow-Loss: Learning Cardinality Estimates That Matter 2021 VLDB 8.1282042e-05
3,269 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 7.3026051e-05
3,345 Lero: A Learning-to-Rank Query Optimizer 2023 VLDB 7.1908499e-05
3,455 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 7.0760196e-05
3,492 Fauce: Fast and Accurate Deep Ensembles with Uncertainty for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 7.0435484e-05
4,413 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB 6.1989918e-05
4,431 Lightweight and Accurate Cardinality Estimation by Neural Network Gaussian Process 2022 SIGMOD 6.1870601e-05
4,543 FACE: A Normalizing Flow based Cardinality Estimator 2022 VLDB 6.0953507e-05
5,405 ALECE: An Attention-based Learned Cardinality Estimator for SPJ Queries on Dynamic Workloads 2024 VLDB 5.5243727e-05
5,412 Kepler: Robust Learning for Faster Parametric Query Optimization 2023 SIGMOD 5.5200608e-05
5,654 AutoSteer: Learned Query Optimization for Any SQL Database 2023 VLDB 5.3882121e-05
5,941 Eraser: Eliminating Performance Regression on Learned Query Optimizer 2024 VLDB 5.2594013e-05
5,978 SafeBound: A Practical System for Generating Cardinality Bounds 2023 SIGMOD 5.2424396e-05
6,328 A Comparative Study and Component Analysis of Query Plan Representation Techniques in ML4DB Studies 2024 VLDB 5.1034426e-05
6,382 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 5.0835686e-05
6,687 How Good are Learned Cost Models, Really? Insights from Query Optimization Tasks 2025 SIGMOD 4.957987e-05
6,753 Breaking It Down: An In-depth Study of Index Advisors 2024 VLDB 4.9345582e-05
6,806 LMSFC: A Novel Multidimensional Index based on Learned Monotonic Space Filling Curves 2023 VLDB 4.917024e-05
6,860 Detect, Distill and Update: Learned DB Systems Facing Out of Distribution Data 2023 SIGMOD 4.9008421e-05
6,883 PilotScope: Steering Databases with Machine Learning Drivers 2024 VLDB 4.8918682e-05
7,118 ASM: Harmonizing Autoregressive Model, Sampling, and Multi-dimensional Statistics Merging for Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 4.8204951e-05
7,220 Speeding Up End-to-end Query Execution via Learning-based Progressive Cardinality Estimation 2023 SIGMOD 4.7926382e-05
7,332 Refactoring Index Tuning Process with Benefit Estimation 2024 VLDB 4.7553758e-05
7,442 Selectivity Functions of Range Queries are Learnable* 2022 SIGMOD 4.7248554e-05
7,611 Learning to be a Statistician: Learned Estimator for Number of Distinct Values 2022 VLDB 4.6920008e-05
7,652 Machine Learning for Cloud Data Systems: the Progress so far and the Path Forward 2021 VLDB 4.6831938e-05
7,854 dbET: Execution Time Distribution-based Plan Selection 2023 SIGMOD 4.6306186e-05
8,011 CAMAL: Optimizing LSM-trees via Active Learning 2024 SIGMOD 4.6022693e-05
8,219 PerfGuard: Deploying ML-for-Systems without Performance Regressions, Almost! 2021 VLDB 4.551524e-05
8,440 PARQO: Penalty-Aware Robust Plan Selection in Query Optimization 2024 VLDB 4.505741e-05
8,636 WISK: A Workload-aware Learned Index for Spatial Keyword Queries 2023 SIGMOD 4.4758336e-05
8,648 HAP: An Efficient Hamming Space Index Based on Augmented Pigeonhole Principle 2022 SIGMOD 4.4718808e-05
8,854 Optimizing the cloud? Don't train models. Build oracles! 2024 CIDR 4.4306537e-05
8,952 One Seed, Two Birds: A Unified Learned Structure for Exact and Approximate Counting 2024 SIGMOD 4.4195459e-05
9,215 PACE: Poisoning Attacks on Learned Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 4.3679174e-05
9,621 ShadowAQP: Efficient Approximate Group-by and Join Query via Attribute-oriented Sample Size Allocation and Data Generation 2023 VLDB 4.3125802e-05
9,662 Efficient Query Re-optimization with Judicious Subquery Selections 2023 SIGMOD 4.3056334e-05
9,746 Still Asking: How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2025 VLDB 4.2856385e-05
9,841 Machine Unlearning in Learned Databases: An Experimental Analysis 2024 SIGMOD 4.2685233e-05
9,845 Path-centric Cardinality Estimation for Subgraph Matching 2025 VLDB 4.2680295e-05
9,876 Color: A Framework for Applying Graph Coloring to Subgraph Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 4.2615675e-05
9,877 PRICE: A Pretrained Model for Cross-Database Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 4.2615675e-05
9,959 An Elephant Under The Microscope: Analyzing The Interaction Of Optimizer Components In PostgreSQL 2025 SIGMOD 4.2254157e-05
10,014 BEE: Towards Redundancy Reduction via Block-Separator Decomposition for Subgraph Matching 2026 SIGMOD 4.1905499e-05
10,038 Understanding Robustness Issues of Updatable Learned Indexes: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 4.1905499e-05
10,125 Understanding and Detecting Query Performance Regression in Practical Index Tuning: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 4.1905499e-05
10,149 CorrBound: Cardinality Estimation Accounting for Inter- and Intra-relation Correlations 2026 SIGMOD 4.1905499e-05
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Outgoing Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 52 cited papers.

Citations counted here include only citations to other VLDB/SIGMOD/CIDR/PODS papers in this database.

Rank Cited Paper Year Venue Pagerank
28 Accurate Estimation Of The Number Of Tuples Satisfying A Condition 1984 SIGMOD 0.00080571183
63 Improved Histograms for Selectivity Estimation of Range Predicates 1996 SIGMOD 0.00063595699
71 How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2016 VLDB 0.00059446482
92 Practical Selectivity Estimation through Adaptive Sampling 1990 SIGMOD 0.00051431888
101 The Case for Learned Index Structures 2018 SIGMOD 0.00049778866
114 Equi-Depth Histograms For Estimating Selectivity Factors For Multi-Dimensional Queries 1988 SIGMOD 0.00046317654
141 Selectivity Estimation Without the Attribute Value Independence Assumption 1997 VLDB 0.00041819767
203 Learned Cardinalities: Estimating Correlated Joins with Deep Learning 2019 CIDR 0.00034868567
223 Wavelet-Based Histograms for Selectivity Estimation 1998 SIGMOD 0.00032829841
250 Adaptive Selectivity Estimation Using Query Feedback 1994 SIGMOD 0.00030640525
329 Neo: A Learned Query Optimizer 2019 VLDB 0.00027301488
373 Selectivity Estimation using Probabilistic Models 2001 SIGMOD 0.00025354685
510 An End-to-End Automatic Cloud Database Tuning System Using Deep Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 0.00021420477
512 STHoles: A Multidimensional Workload-Aware Histogram 2001 SIGMOD 0.00021385343
527 Self-tuning Histograms: Building Histograms Without Looking at Data 1999 SIGMOD 0.00020862475
542 Apache Calcite: A Foundational Framework for Optimized Query Processing Over Heterogeneous Data Sources 2018 SIGMOD 0.00020522627
606 DeepDB: Learn from Data, not from Queries! 2020 VLDB 0.00019251186
627 Preventing Bad Plans by Bounding the Impact of Cardinality Estimation Errors 2009 VLDB 0.00018959896
752 Deep Unsupervised Cardinality Estimation 2020 VLDB 0.00017138049
804 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.0001643674
838 Independence is Good: Dependency-Based Histogram Synopses for High-Dimensional Data 2001 SIGMOD 0.00016024923
905 NeuroCard: One Cardinality Estimator for All Tables 2021 VLDB 0.00015423174
941 Wander Join: Online Aggregation via Random Walks 2016 SIGMOD 0.00015147831
995 Approximating Multi-Dimensional Aggregate Range Queries Over Real Attributes 2000 SIGMOD 0.00014745185
1,104 Cardinality Estimation Done Right: Index-Based Join Sampling 2017 CIDR 0.0001398479
1,116 Global Optimization of Histograms 2001 SIGMOD 0.00013863484
1,161 VerdictDB: Universalizing Approximate Query Processing 2018 SIGMOD 0.00013579831
1,239 Selectivity Estimation for Range Predicates using Lightweight Models 2019 VLDB 0.00013091459
1,536 Lightweight Graphical Models for Selectivity Estimation Without Independence Assumptions 2011 VLDB 0.00011458359
1,683 Cardinality Estimation: An Experimental Survey 2018 VLDB 0.0001091276
1,727 QuickSel: Quick Selectivity Learning with Mixture Models 2020 SIGMOD 0.00010731889
1,756 Sampling-Based Query Re-Optimization 2016 SIGMOD 0.00010659753
1,978 Improved Selectivity Estimation by Combining Knowledge from Sampling and Synopses 2018 VLDB 9.8764627e-05
2,136 SASH: A Self-Adaptive Histogram Set for Dynamically Changing Workloads 2003 VLDB 9.4668797e-05
2,143 Pessimistic Cardinality Estimation: Tighter Upper Bounds for Intermediate Join Cardinalities 2019 SIGMOD 9.4437798e-05
2,167 Self-Tuning, GPU-Accelerated Kernel Density Models for Multidimensional Selectivity Estimation 2015 SIGMOD 9.3879598e-05
2,222 SkinnerDB: Regret-Bounded Query Evaluation via Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 9.2598438e-05
2,247 Orca: A Modular Query Optimizer Architecture for Big Data 2014 SIGMOD 9.201975e-05
2,359 Consistently Estimating the Selectivity of Conjuncts of Predicates 2005 VLDB 8.967267e-05
2,364 Deep Learning Models for Selectivity Estimation of Multi-Attribute Queries 2020 SIGMOD 8.955077e-05
2,494 DBEst: Revisiting Approximate Query Processing Engines with Machine Learning Models 2019 SIGMOD 8.6457436e-05
2,840 Applying the Golden Rule of Sampling for Query Estimation 2001 SIGMOD 8.0417349e-05
2,844 Selectivity Estimation in Extensible Databases - A Neural Network Approach 1998 VLDB 8.0308994e-05
2,971 Estimating Join Selectivities using Bandwidth-Optimized Kernel Density Models 2017 VLDB 7.7935535e-05
3,056 Multiple Join Size Estimation by Virtual Domains (extended abstract) 1993 PODS 7.6459653e-05
3,692 iBTune: Individualized Buffer Tuning for Large-scale Cloud Databases 2019 VLDB 6.8328808e-05
3,944 AQP++: Connecting Approximate Query Processing With Aggregate Precomputation for Interactive Analytics 2018 SIGMOD 6.6056349e-05
3,955 Efficiently Approximating Selectivity Functions using Low Overhead Regression Models 2020 VLDB 6.5895015e-05
4,086 The Case for a Learned Sorting Algorithm 2020 SIGMOD 6.4579358e-05
4,171 Computation Reuse in Analytics Job Service at Microsoft 2018 SIGMOD 6.3800823e-05
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Semantically Similar Papers

Overall Rank Paper Year Venue Pagerank
5,477 Learned Cardinality Estimation for Similarity Queries 2021 SIGMOD 5.4856699e-05
804 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.0001643674
4,413 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB 6.1989918e-05
6,382 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 5.0835686e-05
680 Towards a Robust Query Optimizer: A Principled and Practical Approach 2005 SIGMOD 0.00018193263
1,638 Cardinality Estimation in DBMS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Evaluation 2022 VLDB 0.00011050093
2,080 Towards a Learning Optimizer for Shared Clouds 2019 VLDB 9.5954034e-05
7,220 Speeding Up End-to-end Query Execution via Learning-based Progressive Cardinality Estimation 2023 SIGMOD 4.7926382e-05
3,269 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 7.3026051e-05
3,455 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 7.0760196e-05