Popularity Prediction for Social Media over Arbitrary Time Horizons

Summary: Self-excited Hawkes point process with a growth-rate predictor for popularity across arbitrary horizons, fusing static features and observed growth. A scalable, horizon-agnostic model that outperforms horizon-specific baselines on Facebook page data with billions of views. (summarized by gpt-5-nano on Feb 09 2026)

Paper ID: 12954
Venue: VLDB
Year: 2022
Pagerank: 4.1945683e-05
Overall Rank: 11,422 | 20.54%
DOI: 10.14778/3503585.3503593

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Rank	Cited Paper	Year	Venue	Pagerank
4,292	CHASSIS: Conformity Meets Online Information Diffusion	2020	SIGMOD	6.2885419e-05

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