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How Good are Learned Cost Models, Really? Insights from Query Optimization Tasks

Summary: Systematic evaluation of Learned Cost Models for query optimization across main tasks: join ordering, access path, and operator choice. Seven LCMs vs traditional models; surprisingly, traditional cost models often beat LCMs, guiding future work. (summarized by gpt-5-nano on Feb 09 2026)

Paper ID
hf7d7ee140c7e4899
Venue
SIGMOD
Year
2025
Pagerank
6.4739208e-05
Overall Rank
4,641 | 68.90%
DOI
10.1145/3725309

Incoming Non-self Citations Over Time

Authors

BibTeX Citation

@inproceedings{heinrich_sigmod25,
        title = {{How Good are Learned Cost Models, Really? Insights from Query Optimization Tasks}},
        author = {Heinrich, Roman and Luthra, Manisha and Wehrstein, Johannes and Kornmayer, Harald and Binnig, Carsten},
        series = {{SIGMOD} '25},
        booktitle = {Proceedings of the {ACM} {SIGMOD} International Conference on Management of Data},
        publisher = {Association for Computing Machinery},
        doi = {10.1145/3725309},
        url = {https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3725309},
        year = {2025}
}

Incoming Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 14 of 14 citing papers.

Rank Citing Paper Year Venue Pagerank
10,323 This is Going to Sound Crazy, But What If We Used Large Language Models to Boost Automatic Database Tuning Algorithms By Leveraging Prior History? We Will Find Better Configurations More Quickly Than Retraining From Scratch! 2026 SIGMOD 5.0241309e-05
10,392 E-LQO: A Comprehensive Energy Evaluation Framework for Learned Query Optimization 2027 SIGMOD 4.9605343e-05
10,401 InferQ: A Database-Oriented Benchmark for Quantum Circuits Simulation 2027 SIGMOD 4.9605343e-05
10,420 Rethinking Query Optimization for Multi-Agent Systems 2027 VLDB 4.9605343e-05
10,429 Survivorship Bias in Industrial Database Workloads 2026 CIDR 4.9605343e-05
10,490 Are Learned DBMS Components Robust to Workload Drift?: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 4.9605343e-05
10,751 Reqo: A Comprehensive Learning-Based Cost Model for Robust and Explainable Query Optimization 2026 SIGMOD 4.9605343e-05
10,771 Sample-based Distinct Cardinality Estimation for Multiple Attributes in Multi-Dataset Queries 2026 VLDB 4.9605343e-05
10,812 OBELISK: Efficient Offline Query Planning with Bayesian Optimization-Informed Language Model Reasoning 2026 VLDB 4.9605343e-05
11,025 How Out-of-Bounds Are Your Cardinality Estimates? 2026 VLDB 4.9605343e-05
11,085 Vodka: Rethink Benchmarking Philosophy in HTAP Systems 2026 VLDB 4.9605343e-05
11,125 SafeLoad: Efficient Admission Control Framework for Identifying Memory-Overloading Queries in Cloud Data Warehouses 2026 VLDB 4.9605343e-05
11,447 Opening The Black-Box: Explaining Learned Cost Models For Databases 2025 VLDB 4.9605343e-05
11,484 Learned Cost Models for Query Optimization: From Batch to Streaming Systems 2025 VLDB 4.9605343e-05
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Outgoing Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 28 of 28 cited papers.

Citations counted here include only citations to other VLDB/SIGMOD/CIDR/PODS papers in this database.

Rank Cited Paper Year Venue Pagerank
1 Access Path Selection in a Relational Database Management System 1979 SIGMOD 0.0023948467
15 How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2016 VLDB 0.00061463175
84 Learned Cardinalities: Estimating Correlated Joins with Deep Learning 2019 CIDR 0.00035920657
320 DeepDB: Learn from Data, not from Queries! 2020 VLDB 0.00021128745
355 Bao: Making Learned Query Optimization Practical 2021 SIGMOD 0.00020146245
405 Deep Unsupervised Cardinality Estimation 2020 VLDB 0.00019020138
453 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.0001801482
508 NeuroCard: One Cardinality Estimator for All Tables 2021 VLDB 0.00017108973
545 Plan-Structured Deep Neural Network Models for Query Performance Prediction 2019 VLDB 0.0001657599
628 Performance Prediction for Concurrent Database Workloads 2011 SIGMOD 0.00015421836
1,064 Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation? 2021 VLDB 0.00012181459
1,175 Balsa: Learning a Query Optimizer Without Expert Demonstrations 2022 SIGMOD 0.00011630532
1,791 Why TPC Is Not Enough: An Analysis of the Amazon Redshift Fleet 2024 VLDB 9.6212919e-05
2,169 QueryFormer: A Tree Transformer Model for Query Plan Representation 2022 VLDB 8.9151935e-05
2,190 Lero: A Learning-to-Rank Query Optimizer 2023 VLDB 8.8848923e-05
2,348 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 8.5910072e-05
2,523 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 8.3316032e-05
2,619 Zero-Shot Cost Models for Out-of-the-box Learned Cost Prediction 2022 VLDB 8.1985665e-05
2,768 Query Performance Prediction for Concurrent Queries using Graph Embedding 2020 VLDB 8.0199086e-05
3,303 Cloud Analytics Benchmark 2023 VLDB 7.4212268e-05
4,202 Kepler: Robust Learning for Faster Parametric Query Optimization 2023 SIGMOD 6.7258607e-05
4,247 LEON: A New Framework for ML-Aided Query Optimization 2023 VLDB 6.6920059e-05
5,457 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 6.1058928e-05
5,484 A Comparative Study and Component Analysis of Query Plan Representation Techniques in ML4DB Studies 2024 VLDB 6.0980944e-05
5,837 Pre-training Summarization Models of Structured Datasets for Cardinality Estimation 2022 VLDB 5.9600736e-05
6,109 Is Your Learned Query Optimizer Behaving As You Expect? A Machine Learning Perspective 2024 VLDB 5.8676956e-05
6,158 Rethinking Learned Cost Models: Why Start from Scratch? 2023 SIGMOD 5.8518237e-05
6,402 A Unified Transferable Model for ML-Enhanced DBMS 2022 CIDR 5.7800842e-05
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