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Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation?

Summary: Assess readiness of learned cardinality estimators for production; static workloads yield gains, but training/inference costs are high. Dynamic updates hurt accuracy; sensitivity to correlation, skew, and domain shifts; emphasizes cost control and trustworthiness. (summarized by gpt-5-nano on Feb 09 2026)

Paper ID
h5c05fc5e6cf8c2e5
Venue
VLDB
Year
2021
Pagerank
0.00012202293
Overall Rank
1,065 | 92.85%
DOI
10.14778/3461535.3461552
PDF
Download (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Incoming Non-self Citations Over Time

Authors

BibTeX Citation

@article{wang_vldb21,
        title = {{Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation?}},
        author = {Wang, Xiaoying and Qu, Changbo and Wu, Weiyuan and Wang, Jiannan and Zhou, Qingqing},
        journal = {PVLDB},
        series = {{VLDB} '21},
        volume = {14},
        number = {9},
        pages = {1640--1654},
        doi = {10.14778/3461535.3461552},
        url = {https://doi.org/10.14778/3461535.3461552},
        year = {2021}
}

Incoming Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 61 citing papers.

Rank Citing Paper Year Venue Pagerank
981 Cardinality Estimation in DBMS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Evaluation 2022 VLDB 0.00012713454
1,195 Balsa: Learning a Query Optimizer Without Expert Demonstrations 2022 SIGMOD 0.00011574218
1,735 Flow-Loss: Learning Cardinality Estimates That Matter 2021 VLDB 9.7566604e-05
2,002 FLAT: Fast, Lightweight and Accurate Method for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 9.2076835e-05
2,209 Lero: A Learning-to-Rank Query Optimizer 2023 VLDB 8.8360101e-05
2,342 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 8.6074783e-05
2,518 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 8.3532841e-05
2,583 Fauce: Fast and Accurate Deep Ensembles with Uncertainty for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 8.2589842e-05
3,327 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB 7.4233639e-05
3,742 FACE: A Normalizing Flow based Cardinality Estimator 2022 VLDB 7.0564546e-05
4,191 Kepler: Robust Learning for Faster Parametric Query Optimization 2023 SIGMOD 6.7425275e-05
4,299 ALECE: An Attention-based Learned Cardinality Estimator for SPJ Queries on Dynamic Workloads 2024 VLDB 6.6766173e-05
4,459 Lightweight and Accurate Cardinality Estimation by Neural Network Gaussian Process 2022 SIGMOD 6.5883555e-05
4,677 AutoSteer: Learned Query Optimization for Any SQL Database 2023 VLDB 6.4721041e-05
5,224 SafeBound: A Practical System for Generating Cardinality Bounds 2023 SIGMOD 6.2197808e-05
5,316 How Good are Learned Cost Models, Really? Insights from Query Optimization Tasks 2025 SIGMOD 6.1827415e-05
5,438 Eraser: Eliminating Performance Regression on Learned Query Optimizer 2024 VLDB 6.1278045e-05
5,482 A Comparative Study and Component Analysis of Query Plan Representation Techniques in ML4DB Studies 2024 VLDB 6.1123461e-05
5,630 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 6.056758e-05
5,700 PilotScope: Steering Databases with Machine Learning Drivers 2024 VLDB 6.028998e-05
5,715 Detect, Distill and Update: Learned DB Systems Facing Out of Distribution Data 2023 SIGMOD 6.0178585e-05
6,107 Breaking It Down: An In-depth Study of Index Advisors 2024 VLDB 5.8833461e-05
6,597 LMSFC: A Novel Multidimensional Index based on Learned Monotonic Space Filling Curves 2023 VLDB 5.7386302e-05
6,664 Speeding Up End-to-end Query Execution via Learning-based Progressive Cardinality Estimation 2023 SIGMOD 5.715134e-05
6,796 dbET: Execution Time Distribution-based Plan Selection 2023 SIGMOD 5.6784895e-05
6,824 ASM: Harmonizing Autoregressive Model, Sampling, and Multi-dimensional Statistics Merging for Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 5.670071e-05
7,219 Refactoring Index Tuning Process with Benefit Estimation 2024 VLDB 5.5808392e-05
7,334 Selectivity Functions of Range Queries are Learnable* 2022 SIGMOD 5.5473714e-05
7,356 PerfGuard: Deploying ML-for-Systems without Performance Regressions, Almost! 2021 VLDB 5.5421826e-05
7,426 Learning to be a Statistician: Learned Estimator for Number of Distinct Values 2022 VLDB 5.5295692e-05
7,813 Machine Learning for Cloud Data Systems: the Progress so far and the Path Forward 2021 VLDB 5.4474823e-05
7,909 CAMAL: Optimizing LSM-trees via Active Learning 2024 SIGMOD 5.4266123e-05
8,170 Efficient Query Re-optimization with Judicious Subquery Selections 2023 SIGMOD 5.3827384e-05
8,204 WISK: A Workload-aware Learned Index for Spatial Keyword Queries 2023 SIGMOD 5.3769515e-05
8,393 PARQO: Penalty-Aware Robust Plan Selection in Query Optimization 2024 VLDB 5.3387995e-05
8,667 ShadowAQP: Efficient Approximate Group-by and Join Query via Attribute-oriented Sample Size Allocation and Data Generation 2023 VLDB 5.2905894e-05
8,808 PACE: Poisoning Attacks on Learned Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 5.2717563e-05
8,952 Machine Unlearning in Learned Databases: An Experimental Analysis 2024 SIGMOD 5.2517414e-05
8,955 HAP: An Efficient Hamming Space Index Based on Augmented Pigeonhole Principle 2022 SIGMOD 5.2508006e-05
9,028 Optimizing the cloud? Don't train models. Build oracles! 2024 CIDR 5.2330697e-05
9,122 Presto’s History-based Query Optimizer 2024 VLDB 5.2251319e-05
9,154 One Seed, Two Birds: A Unified Learned Structure for Exact and Approximate Counting 2024 SIGMOD 5.2176438e-05
9,381 Efficient and Effective Cardinality Estimation for Skyline Family 2023 SIGMOD 5.1843659e-05
9,583 A Step Toward Deep Online Aggregation 2023 SIGMOD 5.154741e-05
9,782 Understanding Robustness Issues of Updatable Learned Indexes: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 5.129066e-05
10,107 Still Asking: How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2025 VLDB 5.0765311e-05
10,187 Path-centric Cardinality Estimation for Subgraph Matching 2025 VLDB 5.0628015e-05
10,221 Color: A Framework for Applying Graph Coloring to Subgraph Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 5.0560976e-05
10,222 PRICE: A Pretrained Model for Cross-Database Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 5.0560976e-05
10,259 BEE: Towards Redundancy Reduction via Block-Separator Decomposition for Subgraph Matching 2026 SIGMOD 5.0480912e-05
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Outgoing Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 52 cited papers.

Citations counted here include only citations to other VLDB/SIGMOD/CIDR/PODS papers in this database.

Rank Cited Paper Year Venue Pagerank
15 How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2016 VLDB 0.00061067652
36 Accurate Estimation Of The Number Of Tuples Satisfying A Condition 1984 SIGMOD 0.00047864281
37 Improved Histograms for Selectivity Estimation of Range Predicates 1996 SIGMOD 0.0004772731
40 The Case for Learned Index Structures 2018 SIGMOD 0.00046363107
79 Practical Selectivity Estimation through Adaptive Sampling 1990 SIGMOD 0.00036476265
85 Learned Cardinalities: Estimating Correlated Joins with Deep Learning 2019 CIDR 0.00035876108
103 Selectivity Estimation Without the Attribute Value Independence Assumption 1997 VLDB 0.00033884854
119 Equi-Depth Histograms For Estimating Selectivity Factors For Multi-Dimensional Queries 1988 SIGMOD 0.0003136296
144 Neo: A Learned Query Optimizer 2019 VLDB 0.00029090793
169 Wavelet-Based Histograms for Selectivity Estimation 1998 SIGMOD 0.00027126333
232 Adaptive Selectivity Estimation Using Query Feedback 1994 SIGMOD 0.0002378554
286 Selectivity Estimation using Probabilistic Models 2001 SIGMOD 0.00022112534
314 An End-to-End Automatic Cloud Database Tuning System Using Deep Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 0.00021276452
318 DeepDB: Learn from Data, not from Queries! 2020 VLDB 0.00021166957
371 STHoles: A Multidimensional Workload-Aware Histogram 2001 SIGMOD 0.00019822444
379 Apache Calcite: A Foundational Framework for Optimized Query Processing Over Heterogeneous Data Sources 2018 SIGMOD 0.00019507406
386 Preventing Bad Plans by Bounding the Impact of Cardinality Estimation Errors 2009 VLDB 0.00019446558
406 Deep Unsupervised Cardinality Estimation 2020 VLDB 0.00019050182
454 Self-tuning Histograms: Building Histograms Without Looking at Data 1999 SIGMOD 0.00017955913
462 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.00017836105
510 NeuroCard: One Cardinality Estimator for All Tables 2021 VLDB 0.00017059914
596 Wander Join: Online Aggregation via Random Walks 2016 SIGMOD 0.00015782051
688 Cardinality Estimation Done Right: Index-Based Join Sampling 2017 CIDR 0.00014749318
691 Selectivity Estimation for Range Predicates using Lightweight Models 2019 VLDB 0.00014737455
700 Independence is Good: Dependency-Based Histogram Synopses for High-Dimensional Data 2001 SIGMOD 0.00014675903
772 VerdictDB: Universalizing Approximate Query Processing 2018 SIGMOD 0.0001409096
867 Approximating Multi-Dimensional Aggregate Range Queries Over Real Attributes 2000 SIGMOD 0.00013376165
1,058 Lightweight Graphical Models for Selectivity Estimation Without Independence Assumptions 2011 VLDB 0.00012224038
1,155 QuickSel: Quick Selectivity Learning with Mixture Models 2020 SIGMOD 0.00011777046
1,258 Sampling-Based Query Re-Optimization 2016 SIGMOD 0.00011308863
1,277 Orca: A Modular Query Optimizer Architecture for Big Data 2014 SIGMOD 0.00011234276
1,465 Pessimistic Cardinality Estimation: Tighter Upper Bounds for Intermediate Join Cardinalities 2019 SIGMOD 0.00010572023
1,509 Self-Tuning, GPU-Accelerated Kernel Density Models for Multidimensional Selectivity Estimation 2015 SIGMOD 0.00010436933
1,537 Cardinality Estimation: An Experimental Survey 2018 VLDB 0.00010324934
1,543 Improved Selectivity Estimation by Combining Knowledge from Sampling and Synopses 2018 VLDB 0.00010305662
1,580 Deep Learning Models for Selectivity Estimation of Multi-Attribute Queries 2020 SIGMOD 0.00010177136
1,605 SkinnerDB: Regret-Bounded Query Evaluation via Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 0.00010095581
1,687 Global Optimization of Histograms 2001 SIGMOD 9.8614576e-05
1,828 DBEst: Revisiting Approximate Query Processing Engines with Machine Learning Models 2019 SIGMOD 9.547768e-05
1,931 Consistently Estimating the Selectivity of Conjuncts of Predicates 2005 VLDB 9.3511556e-05
2,142 SASH: A Self-Adaptive Histogram Set for Dynamically Changing Workloads 2003 VLDB 8.9644817e-05
2,217 Estimating Join Selectivities using Bandwidth-Optimized Kernel Density Models 2017 VLDB 8.8151982e-05
2,303 Selectivity Estimation in Extensible Databases - A Neural Network Approach 1998 VLDB 8.6685874e-05
2,537 Applying the Golden Rule of Sampling for Query Estimation 2001 SIGMOD 8.3249336e-05
3,000 Multiple Join Size Estimation by Virtual Domains (extended abstract) 1993 PODS 7.7657164e-05
3,032 iBTune: Individualized Buffer Tuning for Large-scale Cloud Databases 2019 VLDB 7.7317595e-05
3,208 Efficiently Approximating Selectivity Functions using Low Overhead Regression Models 2020 VLDB 7.5355264e-05
3,424 AQP++: Connecting Approximate Query Processing With Aggregate Precomputation for Interactive Analytics 2018 SIGMOD 7.3084429e-05
3,544 Computation Reuse in Analytics Job Service at Microsoft 2018 SIGMOD 7.2108612e-05
3,708 The Case for a Learned Sorting Algorithm 2020 SIGMOD 7.0781032e-05
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Semantically Similar Papers

# Overall Rank Paper Year Venue
1 4,690 Learned Cardinality Estimation for Similarity Queries 2021 SIGMOD
2 462 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB
3 3,327 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB
4 5,630 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB
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