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Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation?

Summary: Assess readiness of learned cardinality estimators for production; static workloads yield gains, but training/inference costs are high. Dynamic updates hurt accuracy; sensitivity to correlation, skew, and domain shifts; emphasizes cost control and trustworthiness. (summarized by gpt-5-nano on Feb 09 2026)

Paper ID
h5c05fc5e6cf8c2e5
Venue
VLDB
Year
2021
Pagerank
0.00012181459
Overall Rank
1,064 | 92.87%
DOI
10.14778/3461535.3461552
PDF
Download (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Incoming Non-self Citations Over Time

Authors

BibTeX Citation

@article{wang_vldb21,
        title = {{Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation?}},
        author = {Wang, Xiaoying and Qu, Changbo and Wu, Weiyuan and Wang, Jiannan and Zhou, Qingqing},
        journal = {PVLDB},
        series = {{VLDB} '21},
        volume = {14},
        number = {9},
        pages = {1640--1654},
        doi = {10.14778/3461535.3461552},
        url = {https://doi.org/10.14778/3461535.3461552},
        year = {2021}
}

Incoming Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 61 citing papers.

Rank Citing Paper Year Venue Pagerank
983 Cardinality Estimation in DBMS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Evaluation 2022 VLDB 0.00012677179
1,175 Balsa: Learning a Query Optimizer Without Expert Demonstrations 2022 SIGMOD 0.00011630532
1,740 Flow-Loss: Learning Cardinality Estimates That Matter 2021 VLDB 9.7289523e-05
2,009 FLAT: Fast, Lightweight and Accurate Method for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 9.1813272e-05
2,190 Lero: A Learning-to-Rank Query Optimizer 2023 VLDB 8.8848923e-05
2,348 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 8.5910072e-05
2,523 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 8.3316032e-05
2,584 Fauce: Fast and Accurate Deep Ensembles with Uncertainty for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 8.2435322e-05
3,269 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB 7.463682e-05
3,740 FACE: A Normalizing Flow based Cardinality Estimator 2022 VLDB 7.0398782e-05
4,202 Kepler: Robust Learning for Faster Parametric Query Optimization 2023 SIGMOD 6.7258607e-05
4,315 ALECE: An Attention-based Learned Cardinality Estimator for SPJ Queries on Dynamic Workloads 2024 VLDB 6.6545412e-05
4,479 Lightweight and Accurate Cardinality Estimation by Neural Network Gaussian Process 2022 SIGMOD 6.5665703e-05
4,641 How Good are Learned Cost Models, Really? Insights from Query Optimization Tasks 2025 SIGMOD 6.4739208e-05
4,683 AutoSteer: Learned Query Optimization for Any SQL Database 2023 VLDB 6.4545989e-05
5,075 SafeBound: A Practical System for Generating Cardinality Bounds 2023 SIGMOD 6.2721634e-05
5,453 Eraser: Eliminating Performance Regression on Learned Query Optimizer 2024 VLDB 6.1077838e-05
5,457 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 6.1058928e-05
5,484 A Comparative Study and Component Analysis of Query Plan Representation Techniques in ML4DB Studies 2024 VLDB 6.0980944e-05
5,713 PilotScope: Steering Databases with Machine Learning Drivers 2024 VLDB 6.0090633e-05
5,728 Detect, Distill and Update: Learned DB Systems Facing Out of Distribution Data 2023 SIGMOD 5.9979958e-05
6,121 Breaking It Down: An In-depth Study of Index Advisors 2024 VLDB 5.863893e-05
6,604 LMSFC: A Novel Multidimensional Index based on Learned Monotonic Space Filling Curves 2023 VLDB 5.7196547e-05
6,672 Speeding Up End-to-end Query Execution via Learning-based Progressive Cardinality Estimation 2023 SIGMOD 5.6975871e-05
6,812 dbET: Execution Time Distribution-based Plan Selection 2023 SIGMOD 5.6597129e-05
6,840 ASM: Harmonizing Autoregressive Model, Sampling, and Multi-dimensional Statistics Merging for Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 5.6513231e-05
7,238 Refactoring Index Tuning Process with Benefit Estimation 2024 VLDB 5.5624225e-05
7,355 Selectivity Functions of Range Queries are Learnable* 2022 SIGMOD 5.529034e-05
7,377 PerfGuard: Deploying ML-for-Systems without Performance Regressions, Almost! 2021 VLDB 5.5238616e-05
7,446 Learning to be a Statistician: Learned Estimator for Number of Distinct Values 2022 VLDB 5.5113049e-05
7,830 Machine Learning for Cloud Data Systems: the Progress so far and the Path Forward 2021 VLDB 5.4294933e-05
7,925 CAMAL: Optimizing LSM-trees via Active Learning 2024 SIGMOD 5.4086685e-05
8,188 Efficient Query Re-optimization with Judicious Subquery Selections 2023 SIGMOD 5.3649397e-05
8,219 WISK: A Workload-aware Learned Index for Spatial Keyword Queries 2023 SIGMOD 5.359172e-05
8,412 PARQO: Penalty-Aware Robust Plan Selection in Query Optimization 2024 VLDB 5.3211467e-05
8,685 ShadowAQP: Efficient Approximate Group-by and Join Query via Attribute-oriented Sample Size Allocation and Data Generation 2023 VLDB 5.2730954e-05
8,825 PACE: Poisoning Attacks on Learned Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 5.2543246e-05
8,975 Machine Unlearning in Learned Databases: An Experimental Analysis 2024 SIGMOD 5.2343759e-05
8,978 HAP: An Efficient Hamming Space Index Based on Augmented Pigeonhole Principle 2022 SIGMOD 5.2334381e-05
9,041 Optimizing the cloud? Don't train models. Build oracles! 2024 CIDR 5.2183053e-05
9,141 Presto’s History-based Query Optimizer 2024 VLDB 5.2078543e-05
9,176 One Seed, Two Birds: A Unified Learned Structure for Exact and Approximate Counting 2024 SIGMOD 5.200391e-05
9,407 Efficient and Effective Cardinality Estimation for Skyline Family 2023 SIGMOD 5.1672232e-05
9,608 A Step Toward Deep Online Aggregation 2023 SIGMOD 5.1376962e-05
9,810 Color: A Framework for Applying Graph Coloring to Subgraph Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 5.112328e-05
9,814 Understanding Robustness Issues of Updatable Learned Indexes: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 5.1121061e-05
9,881 BEE: Towards Redundancy Reduction via Block-Separator Decomposition for Subgraph Matching 2026 SIGMOD 5.1043481e-05
10,143 Still Asking: How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2025 VLDB 5.0597449e-05
10,221 Path-centric Cardinality Estimation for Subgraph Matching 2025 VLDB 5.0460607e-05
10,257 PRICE: A Pretrained Model for Cross-Database Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 5.039379e-05
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Outgoing Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 52 cited papers.

Citations counted here include only citations to other VLDB/SIGMOD/CIDR/PODS papers in this database.

Rank Cited Paper Year Venue Pagerank
15 How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2016 VLDB 0.00061463175
36 Accurate Estimation Of The Number Of Tuples Satisfying A Condition 1984 SIGMOD 0.00047770864
37 Improved Histograms for Selectivity Estimation of Range Predicates 1996 SIGMOD 0.00047654188
40 The Case for Learned Index Structures 2018 SIGMOD 0.00046249672
79 Practical Selectivity Estimation through Adaptive Sampling 1990 SIGMOD 0.00036394222
84 Learned Cardinalities: Estimating Correlated Joins with Deep Learning 2019 CIDR 0.00035920657
103 Selectivity Estimation Without the Attribute Value Independence Assumption 1997 VLDB 0.00033847446
119 Equi-Depth Histograms For Estimating Selectivity Factors For Multi-Dimensional Queries 1988 SIGMOD 0.00031291457
142 Neo: A Learned Query Optimizer 2019 VLDB 0.00029114937
171 Wavelet-Based Histograms for Selectivity Estimation 1998 SIGMOD 0.00027063233
234 Adaptive Selectivity Estimation Using Query Feedback 1994 SIGMOD 0.00023726296
287 Selectivity Estimation using Probabilistic Models 2001 SIGMOD 0.00022060616
309 An End-to-End Automatic Cloud Database Tuning System Using Deep Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 0.0002143249
320 DeepDB: Learn from Data, not from Queries! 2020 VLDB 0.00021128745
372 STHoles: A Multidimensional Workload-Aware Histogram 2001 SIGMOD 0.00019768921
381 Preventing Bad Plans by Bounding the Impact of Cardinality Estimation Errors 2009 VLDB 0.00019497061
382 Apache Calcite: A Foundational Framework for Optimized Query Processing Over Heterogeneous Data Sources 2018 SIGMOD 0.0001946654
405 Deep Unsupervised Cardinality Estimation 2020 VLDB 0.00019020138
453 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.0001801482
457 Self-tuning Histograms: Building Histograms Without Looking at Data 1999 SIGMOD 0.00017915659
508 NeuroCard: One Cardinality Estimator for All Tables 2021 VLDB 0.00017108973
594 Wander Join: Online Aggregation via Random Walks 2016 SIGMOD 0.00015814493
689 Cardinality Estimation Done Right: Index-Based Join Sampling 2017 CIDR 0.00014725904
690 Selectivity Estimation for Range Predicates using Lightweight Models 2019 VLDB 0.00014703258
701 Independence is Good: Dependency-Based Histogram Synopses for High-Dimensional Data 2001 SIGMOD 0.0001464136
770 VerdictDB: Universalizing Approximate Query Processing 2018 SIGMOD 0.00014086699
868 Approximating Multi-Dimensional Aggregate Range Queries Over Real Attributes 2000 SIGMOD 0.00013336675
1,061 Lightweight Graphical Models for Selectivity Estimation Without Independence Assumptions 2011 VLDB 0.00012207625
1,156 QuickSel: Quick Selectivity Learning with Mixture Models 2020 SIGMOD 0.00011759683
1,261 Sampling-Based Query Re-Optimization 2016 SIGMOD 0.00011289724
1,281 Orca: A Modular Query Optimizer Architecture for Big Data 2014 SIGMOD 0.00011198917
1,444 Pessimistic Cardinality Estimation: Tighter Upper Bounds for Intermediate Join Cardinalities 2019 SIGMOD 0.00010616242
1,511 Self-Tuning, GPU-Accelerated Kernel Density Models for Multidimensional Selectivity Estimation 2015 SIGMOD 0.00010408003
1,534 Cardinality Estimation: An Experimental Survey 2018 VLDB 0.00010309919
1,541 Improved Selectivity Estimation by Combining Knowledge from Sampling and Synopses 2018 VLDB 0.00010288394
1,583 Deep Learning Models for Selectivity Estimation of Multi-Attribute Queries 2020 SIGMOD 0.00010148362
1,609 SkinnerDB: Regret-Bounded Query Evaluation via Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 0.0001007196
1,693 Global Optimization of Histograms 2001 SIGMOD 9.8377504e-05
1,839 DBEst: Revisiting Approximate Query Processing Engines with Machine Learning Models 2019 SIGMOD 9.5187688e-05
1,935 Consistently Estimating the Selectivity of Conjuncts of Predicates 2005 VLDB 9.3407959e-05
2,154 SASH: A Self-Adaptive Histogram Set for Dynamically Changing Workloads 2003 VLDB 8.9382906e-05
2,228 Estimating Join Selectivities using Bandwidth-Optimized Kernel Density Models 2017 VLDB 8.7912743e-05
2,310 Selectivity Estimation in Extensible Databases - A Neural Network Approach 1998 VLDB 8.6493038e-05
2,544 Applying the Golden Rule of Sampling for Query Estimation 2001 SIGMOD 8.2988657e-05
2,929 iBTune: Individualized Buffer Tuning for Large-scale Cloud Databases 2019 VLDB 7.830745e-05
3,009 Multiple Join Size Estimation by Virtual Domains (extended abstract) 1993 PODS 7.7439468e-05
3,212 Efficiently Approximating Selectivity Functions using Low Overhead Regression Models 2020 VLDB 7.5145409e-05
3,435 AQP++: Connecting Approximate Query Processing With Aggregate Precomputation for Interactive Analytics 2018 SIGMOD 7.2845431e-05
3,550 Computation Reuse in Analytics Job Service at Microsoft 2018 SIGMOD 7.1895215e-05
3,715 The Case for a Learned Sorting Algorithm 2020 SIGMOD 7.0549546e-05
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# Overall Rank Paper Year Venue
1 4,703 Learned Cardinality Estimation for Similarity Queries 2021 SIGMOD
2 453 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB
3 3,269 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB
4 5,457 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB
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