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Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation?

Summary: Assess readiness of learned cardinality estimators for production; static workloads yield gains, but training/inference costs are high. Dynamic updates hurt accuracy; sensitivity to correlation, skew, and domain shifts; emphasizes cost control and trustworthiness. (summarized by gpt-5-nano on Feb 09 2026)

Paper ID
12539
Venue
VLDB
Year
2021
Pagerank
0.00012369764
Overall Rank
1,061 | 92.73%
DOI
10.14778/3461535.3461552

Incoming Non-self Citations Over Time

Authors

BibTeX Citation

@article{wang_vldb21,
        title = {{Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation?}},
        author = {Wang, Xiaoying and Qu, Changbo and Wu, Weiyuan and Wang, Jiannan and Zhou, Qingqing},
        journal = {PVLDB},
        series = {{VLDB} '21},
        volume = {14},
        number = {9},
        pages = {1640--1654},
        doi = {10.14778/3461535.3461552},
        url = {https://doi.org/10.14778/3461535.3461552},
        year = {2021}
}

Incoming Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 60 citing papers.

Rank Citing Paper Year Venue Pagerank
1,122 Cardinality Estimation in DBMS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Evaluation 2022 VLDB 0.0001209124
1,241 Balsa: Learning a Query Optimizer Without Expert Demonstrations 2022 SIGMOD 0.00011521639
1,876 Flow-Loss: Learning Cardinality Estimates That Matter 2021 VLDB 9.5717543e-05
1,988 FLAT: Fast, Lightweight and Accurate Method for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 9.3501502e-05
2,420 Lero: A Learning-to-Rank Query Optimizer 2023 VLDB 8.605257e-05
2,543 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 8.4445934e-05
2,620 Fauce: Fast and Accurate Deep Ensembles with Uncertainty for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 8.3363963e-05
2,723 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 8.2049453e-05
3,338 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB 7.5068221e-05
3,688 FACE: A Normalizing Flow based Cardinality Estimator 2022 VLDB 7.201795e-05
4,349 ALECE: An Attention-based Learned Cardinality Estimator for SPJ Queries on Dynamic Workloads 2024 VLDB 6.7504619e-05
4,368 Lightweight and Accurate Cardinality Estimation by Neural Network Gaussian Process 2022 SIGMOD 6.7393882e-05
4,470 Kepler: Robust Learning for Faster Parametric Query Optimization 2023 SIGMOD 6.6817353e-05
4,929 AutoSteer: Learned Query Optimization for Any SQL Database 2023 VLDB 6.4423294e-05
5,573 Eraser: Eliminating Performance Regression on Learned Query Optimizer 2024 VLDB 6.1682747e-05
5,576 SafeBound: A Practical System for Generating Cardinality Bounds 2023 SIGMOD 6.1663946e-05
5,712 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 6.1123894e-05
5,767 A Comparative Study and Component Analysis of Query Plan Representation Techniques in ML4DB Studies 2024 VLDB 6.0945741e-05
6,088 How Good are Learned Cost Models, Really? Insights from Query Optimization Tasks 2025 SIGMOD 5.9813965e-05
6,132 Detect, Distill and Update: Learned DB Systems Facing Out of Distribution Data 2023 SIGMOD 5.9660278e-05
6,327 Breaking It Down: An In-depth Study of Index Advisors 2024 VLDB 5.9124005e-05
6,459 LMSFC: A Novel Multidimensional Index based on Learned Monotonic Space Filling Curves 2023 VLDB 5.8727182e-05
6,462 PilotScope: Steering Databases with Machine Learning Drivers 2024 VLDB 5.8717744e-05
6,543 Speeding Up End-to-end Query Execution via Learning-based Progressive Cardinality Estimation 2023 SIGMOD 5.8461929e-05
6,704 ASM: Harmonizing Autoregressive Model, Sampling, and Multi-dimensional Statistics Merging for Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 5.797374e-05
7,076 Refactoring Index Tuning Process with Benefit Estimation 2024 VLDB 5.7098893e-05
7,193 dbET: Execution Time Distribution-based Plan Selection 2023 SIGMOD 5.6770249e-05
7,206 Selectivity Functions of Range Queries are Learnable* 2022 SIGMOD 5.6731116e-05
7,290 Learning to be a Statistician: Learned Estimator for Number of Distinct Values 2022 VLDB 5.6540503e-05
7,661 Machine Learning for Cloud Data Systems: the Progress so far and the Path Forward 2021 VLDB 5.5736026e-05
7,757 CAMAL: Optimizing LSM-trees via Active Learning 2024 SIGMOD 5.5508469e-05
8,040 PerfGuard: Deploying ML-for-Systems without Performance Regressions, Almost! 2021 VLDB 5.5018396e-05
8,048 WISK: A Workload-aware Learned Index for Spatial Keyword Queries 2023 SIGMOD 5.5003171e-05
8,305 PARQO: Penalty-Aware Robust Plan Selection in Query Optimization 2024 VLDB 5.4568571e-05
8,492 ShadowAQP: Efficient Approximate Group-by and Join Query via Attribute-oriented Sample Size Allocation and Data Generation 2023 VLDB 5.4145838e-05
8,643 PACE: Poisoning Attacks on Learned Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 5.3940849e-05
8,791 HAP: An Efficient Hamming Space Index Based on Augmented Pigeonhole Principle 2022 SIGMOD 5.3717005e-05
8,861 Optimizing the cloud? Don't train models. Build oracles! 2024 CIDR 5.355716e-05
8,986 One Seed, Two Birds: A Unified Learned Structure for Exact and Approximate Counting 2024 SIGMOD 5.3387783e-05
9,192 Efficient and Effective Cardinality Estimation for Skyline Family 2023 SIGMOD 5.3058708e-05
9,392 A Step Toward Deep Online Aggregation 2023 SIGMOD 5.2755515e-05
9,587 Machine Unlearning in Learned Databases: An Experimental Analysis 2024 SIGMOD 5.2525104e-05
9,599 Understanding Robustness Issues of Updatable Learned Indexes: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 5.2492748e-05
9,756 Efficient Query Re-optimization with Judicious Subquery Selections 2023 SIGMOD 5.2258278e-05
9,920 Still Asking: How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2025 VLDB 5.1955087e-05
9,996 Path-centric Cardinality Estimation for Subgraph Matching 2025 VLDB 5.1814573e-05
10,027 Color: A Framework for Applying Graph Coloring to Subgraph Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 5.1745962e-05
10,028 PRICE: A Pretrained Model for Cross-Database Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 5.1745962e-05
10,108 An Elephant Under The Microscope: Analyzing The Interaction Of Optimizer Components In PostgreSQL 2025 SIGMOD 5.1347137e-05
10,312 BEE: Towards Redundancy Reduction via Block-Separator Decomposition for Subgraph Matching 2026 SIGMOD 5.093636e-05
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Outgoing Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 52 cited papers.

Citations counted here include only citations to other VLDB/SIGMOD/CIDR/PODS papers in this database.

Rank Cited Paper Year Venue Pagerank
18 How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2016 VLDB 0.00059284255
35 Improved Histograms for Selectivity Estimation of Range Predicates 1996 SIGMOD 0.00048481081
36 Accurate Estimation Of The Number Of Tuples Satisfying A Condition 1984 SIGMOD 0.00048351457
43 The Case for Learned Index Structures 2018 SIGMOD 0.00046060254
76 Practical Selectivity Estimation through Adaptive Sampling 1990 SIGMOD 0.00037054261
84 Learned Cardinalities: Estimating Correlated Joins with Deep Learning 2019 CIDR 0.00035838391
101 Selectivity Estimation Without the Attribute Value Independence Assumption 1997 VLDB 0.00034376651
118 Equi-Depth Histograms For Estimating Selectivity Factors For Multi-Dimensional Queries 1988 SIGMOD 0.00031922279
154 Neo: A Learned Query Optimizer 2019 VLDB 0.00028726181
168 Wavelet-Based Histograms for Selectivity Estimation 1998 SIGMOD 0.00027541029
222 Adaptive Selectivity Estimation Using Query Feedback 1994 SIGMOD 0.00024193708
280 Selectivity Estimation using Probabilistic Models 2001 SIGMOD 0.00022454217
323 DeepDB: Learn from Data, not from Queries! 2020 VLDB 0.00021264788
334 An End-to-End Automatic Cloud Database Tuning System Using Deep Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 0.00020875082
365 STHoles: A Multidimensional Workload-Aware Histogram 2001 SIGMOD 0.00020041735
388 Preventing Bad Plans by Bounding the Impact of Cardinality Estimation Errors 2009 VLDB 0.00019410042
401 Deep Unsupervised Cardinality Estimation 2020 VLDB 0.00019092557
445 Apache Calcite: A Foundational Framework for Optimized Query Processing Over Heterogeneous Data Sources 2018 SIGMOD 0.00018336751
448 Self-tuning Histograms: Building Histograms Without Looking at Data 1999 SIGMOD 0.00018292618
465 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.0001803934
513 NeuroCard: One Cardinality Estimator for All Tables 2021 VLDB 0.00017190574
593 Wander Join: Online Aggregation via Random Walks 2016 SIGMOD 0.00016027871
692 Independence is Good: Dependency-Based Histogram Synopses for High-Dimensional Data 2001 SIGMOD 0.00014919816
694 Cardinality Estimation Done Right: Index-Based Join Sampling 2017 CIDR 0.00014911698
697 Selectivity Estimation for Range Predicates using Lightweight Models 2019 VLDB 0.00014888851
772 VerdictDB: Universalizing Approximate Query Processing 2018 SIGMOD 0.00014147905
850 Approximating Multi-Dimensional Aggregate Range Queries Over Real Attributes 2000 SIGMOD 0.00013619394
1,071 Lightweight Graphical Models for Selectivity Estimation Without Independence Assumptions 2011 VLDB 0.00012322342
1,170 QuickSel: Quick Selectivity Learning with Mixture Models 2020 SIGMOD 0.00011827259
1,256 Sampling-Based Query Re-Optimization 2016 SIGMOD 0.00011457194
1,499 Pessimistic Cardinality Estimation: Tighter Upper Bounds for Intermediate Join Cardinalities 2019 SIGMOD 0.00010564536
1,503 Self-Tuning, GPU-Accelerated Kernel Density Models for Multidimensional Selectivity Estimation 2015 SIGMOD 0.000105564
1,516 Cardinality Estimation: An Experimental Survey 2018 VLDB 0.00010520885
1,536 Improved Selectivity Estimation by Combining Knowledge from Sampling and Synopses 2018 VLDB 0.00010460864
1,573 Deep Learning Models for Selectivity Estimation of Multi-Attribute Queries 2020 SIGMOD 0.00010328171
1,621 Orca: A Modular Query Optimizer Architecture for Big Data 2014 SIGMOD 0.00010203114
1,668 Global Optimization of Histograms 2001 SIGMOD 0.00010057026
1,712 SkinnerDB: Regret-Bounded Query Evaluation via Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 9.9492299e-05
1,799 DBEst: Revisiting Approximate Query Processing Engines with Machine Learning Models 2019 SIGMOD 9.7326398e-05
1,936 Consistently Estimating the Selectivity of Conjuncts of Predicates 2005 VLDB 9.4557372e-05
2,121 SASH: A Self-Adaptive Histogram Set for Dynamically Changing Workloads 2003 VLDB 9.1402718e-05
2,203 Estimating Join Selectivities using Bandwidth-Optimized Kernel Density Models 2017 VLDB 8.9610447e-05
2,281 Selectivity Estimation in Extensible Databases - A Neural Network Approach 1998 VLDB 8.8129279e-05
2,493 Applying the Golden Rule of Sampling for Query Estimation 2001 SIGMOD 8.5070756e-05
2,984 Multiple Join Size Estimation by Virtual Domains (extended abstract) 1993 PODS 7.8920597e-05
3,162 Efficiently Approximating Selectivity Functions using Low Overhead Regression Models 2020 VLDB 7.6785856e-05
3,219 iBTune: Individualized Buffer Tuning for Large-scale Cloud Databases 2019 VLDB 7.6283153e-05
3,366 AQP++: Connecting Approximate Query Processing With Aggregate Precomputation for Interactive Analytics 2018 SIGMOD 7.4748604e-05
3,605 Computation Reuse in Analytics Job Service at Microsoft 2018 SIGMOD 7.2640711e-05
3,865 The Case for a Learned Sorting Algorithm 2020 SIGMOD 7.0621718e-05
Previous Page 1 / 2 Next

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# Overall Rank Paper Year Venue
1 4,617 Learned Cardinality Estimation for Similarity Queries 2021 SIGMOD
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3 3,338 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB
4 5,712 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB
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