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Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation?

Summary: Assess readiness of learned cardinality estimators for production; static workloads yield gains, but training/inference costs are high. Dynamic updates hurt accuracy; sensitivity to correlation, skew, and domain shifts; emphasizes cost control and trustworthiness. (summarized by gpt-5-nano on Feb 09 2026)

Paper ID
12351
Venue
VLDB
Year
2021
Pagerank
0.00010836769
Overall Rank
1,703 | 88.16%
DOI
10.14778/3461535.3461552

Incoming Non-self Citations Over Time

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Incoming Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 60 citing papers.

Rank Citing Paper Year Venue Pagerank
1,638 Cardinality Estimation in DBMS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Evaluation 2022 VLDB 0.00011049779
2,121 Balsa: Learning a Query Optimizer Without Expert Demonstrations 2022 SIGMOD 9.5017232e-05
2,762 FLAT: Fast, Lightweight and Accurate Method for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 8.1585394e-05
2,783 Flow-Loss: Learning Cardinality Estimates That Matter 2021 VLDB 8.1293383e-05
3,266 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 7.3074684e-05
3,348 Lero: A Learning-to-Rank Query Optimizer 2023 VLDB 7.1904529e-05
3,449 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 7.0824319e-05
3,499 Fauce: Fast and Accurate Deep Ensembles with Uncertainty for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 7.0376445e-05
4,417 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB 6.2037371e-05
4,434 Lightweight and Accurate Cardinality Estimation by Neural Network Gaussian Process 2022 SIGMOD 6.1929999e-05
4,543 FACE: A Normalizing Flow based Cardinality Estimator 2022 VLDB 6.1011198e-05
5,401 ALECE: An Attention-based Learned Cardinality Estimator for SPJ Queries on Dynamic Workloads 2024 VLDB 5.5285035e-05
5,423 Kepler: Robust Learning for Faster Parametric Query Optimization 2023 SIGMOD 5.5130233e-05
5,640 AutoSteer: Learned Query Optimization for Any SQL Database 2023 VLDB 5.3933314e-05
5,952 Eraser: Eliminating Performance Regression on Learned Query Optimizer 2024 VLDB 5.2591691e-05
5,972 SafeBound: A Practical System for Generating Cardinality Bounds 2023 SIGMOD 5.2474768e-05
6,328 A Comparative Study and Component Analysis of Query Plan Representation Techniques in ML4DB Studies 2024 VLDB 5.1082882e-05
6,383 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 5.0884322e-05
6,685 How Good are Learned Cost Models, Really? Insights from Query Optimization Tasks 2025 SIGMOD 4.9627485e-05
6,750 Breaking It Down: An In-depth Study of Index Advisors 2024 VLDB 4.9392771e-05
6,879 Detect, Distill and Update: Learned DB Systems Facing Out of Distribution Data 2023 SIGMOD 4.8971368e-05
6,885 PilotScope: Steering Databases with Machine Learning Drivers 2024 VLDB 4.895386e-05
7,042 LMSFC: A Novel Multidimensional Index based on Learned Monotonic Space Filling Curves 2023 VLDB 4.8541986e-05
7,123 ASM: Harmonizing Autoregressive Model, Sampling, and Multi-dimensional Statistics Merging for Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 4.8251036e-05
7,221 Speeding Up End-to-end Query Execution via Learning-based Progressive Cardinality Estimation 2023 SIGMOD 4.797194e-05
7,336 Refactoring Index Tuning Process with Benefit Estimation 2024 VLDB 4.7599411e-05
7,457 Selectivity Functions of Range Queries are Learnable* 2022 SIGMOD 4.7247191e-05
7,610 Learning to be a Statistician: Learned Estimator for Number of Distinct Values 2022 VLDB 4.6965039e-05
7,655 Machine Learning for Cloud Data Systems: the Progress so far and the Path Forward 2021 VLDB 4.6872456e-05
7,854 dbET: Execution Time Distribution-based Plan Selection 2023 SIGMOD 4.6350172e-05
8,009 CAMAL: Optimizing LSM-trees via Active Learning 2024 SIGMOD 4.6066863e-05
8,220 PerfGuard: Deploying ML-for-Systems without Performance Regressions, Almost! 2021 VLDB 4.5557328e-05
8,448 PARQO: Penalty-Aware Robust Plan Selection in Query Optimization 2024 VLDB 4.5100508e-05
8,636 WISK: A Workload-aware Learned Index for Spatial Keyword Queries 2023 SIGMOD 4.4801284e-05
8,650 HAP: An Efficient Hamming Space Index Based on Augmented Pigeonhole Principle 2022 SIGMOD 4.4761716e-05
8,854 Optimizing the cloud? Don't train models. Build oracles! 2024 CIDR 4.4349047e-05
8,948 One Seed, Two Birds: A Unified Learned Structure for Exact and Approximate Counting 2024 SIGMOD 4.423786e-05
9,213 PACE: Poisoning Attacks on Learned Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 4.3721075e-05
9,621 ShadowAQP: Efficient Approximate Group-by and Join Query via Attribute-oriented Sample Size Allocation and Data Generation 2023 VLDB 4.3167167e-05
9,662 Efficient Query Re-optimization with Judicious Subquery Selections 2023 SIGMOD 4.3097631e-05
9,747 Still Asking: How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2025 VLDB 4.2897489e-05
9,845 Path-centric Cardinality Estimation for Subgraph Matching 2025 VLDB 4.2721228e-05
9,852 Machine Unlearning in Learned Databases: An Experimental Analysis 2024 SIGMOD 4.2714575e-05
9,877 Color: A Framework for Applying Graph Coloring to Subgraph Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 4.2656547e-05
9,878 PRICE: A Pretrained Model for Cross-Database Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 4.2656547e-05
9,960 An Elephant Under The Microscope: Analyzing The Interaction Of Optimizer Components In PostgreSQL 2025 SIGMOD 4.2294678e-05
10,014 BEE: Towards Redundancy Reduction via Block-Separator Decomposition for Subgraph Matching 2026 SIGMOD 4.1945683e-05
10,038 Understanding Robustness Issues of Updatable Learned Indexes: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 4.1945683e-05
10,125 Understanding and Detecting Query Performance Regression in Practical Index Tuning: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 4.1945683e-05
10,149 CorrBound: Cardinality Estimation Accounting for Inter- and Intra-relation Correlations 2026 SIGMOD 4.1945683e-05
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Outgoing Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 52 cited papers.

Citations counted here include only citations to other VLDB/SIGMOD/CIDR/PODS papers in this database.

Rank Cited Paper Year Venue Pagerank
28 Accurate Estimation Of The Number Of Tuples Satisfying A Condition 1984 SIGMOD 0.00080435857
64 Improved Histograms for Selectivity Estimation of Range Predicates 1996 SIGMOD 0.00063612837
71 How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2016 VLDB 0.00059038975
92 Practical Selectivity Estimation through Adaptive Sampling 1990 SIGMOD 0.00051315959
102 The Case for Learned Index Structures 2018 SIGMOD 0.00049545203
116 Equi-Depth Histograms For Estimating Selectivity Factors For Multi-Dimensional Queries 1988 SIGMOD 0.00046148737
141 Selectivity Estimation Without the Attribute Value Independence Assumption 1997 VLDB 0.00041786333
204 Learned Cardinalities: Estimating Correlated Joins with Deep Learning 2019 CIDR 0.00034784455
222 Wavelet-Based Histograms for Selectivity Estimation 1998 SIGMOD 0.00032828302
252 Adaptive Selectivity Estimation Using Query Feedback 1994 SIGMOD 0.00030632263
333 Neo: A Learned Query Optimizer 2019 VLDB 0.00027206884
372 Selectivity Estimation using Probabilistic Models 2001 SIGMOD 0.00025354779
512 STHoles: A Multidimensional Workload-Aware Histogram 2001 SIGMOD 0.00021380733
514 An End-to-End Automatic Cloud Database Tuning System Using Deep Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 0.0002124895
529 Self-tuning Histograms: Building Histograms Without Looking at Data 1999 SIGMOD 0.00020828852
544 Apache Calcite: A Foundational Framework for Optimized Query Processing Over Heterogeneous Data Sources 2018 SIGMOD 0.00020521965
608 DeepDB: Learn from Data, not from Queries! 2020 VLDB 0.00019235898
629 Preventing Bad Plans by Bounding the Impact of Cardinality Estimation Errors 2009 VLDB 0.00018942366
758 Deep Unsupervised Cardinality Estimation 2020 VLDB 0.0001706608
806 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.00016434274
842 Independence is Good: Dependency-Based Histogram Synopses for High-Dimensional Data 2001 SIGMOD 0.00016031973
910 NeuroCard: One Cardinality Estimator for All Tables 2021 VLDB 0.00015423056
943 Wander Join: Online Aggregation via Random Walks 2016 SIGMOD 0.00015145883
996 Approximating Multi-Dimensional Aggregate Range Queries Over Real Attributes 2000 SIGMOD 0.00014741524
1,105 Cardinality Estimation Done Right: Index-Based Join Sampling 2017 CIDR 0.00013990395
1,120 Global Optimization of Histograms 2001 SIGMOD 0.00013856211
1,204 VerdictDB: Universalizing Approximate Query Processing 2018 SIGMOD 0.00013319541
1,254 Selectivity Estimation for Range Predicates using Lightweight Models 2019 VLDB 0.00013027411
1,547 Lightweight Graphical Models for Selectivity Estimation Without Independence Assumptions 2011 VLDB 0.00011442359
1,683 Cardinality Estimation: An Experimental Survey 2018 VLDB 0.00010922679
1,737 QuickSel: Quick Selectivity Learning with Mixture Models 2020 SIGMOD 0.00010720294
1,758 Sampling-Based Query Re-Optimization 2016 SIGMOD 0.00010655546
1,981 Improved Selectivity Estimation by Combining Knowledge from Sampling and Synopses 2018 VLDB 9.8687545e-05
2,137 SASH: A Self-Adaptive Histogram Set for Dynamically Changing Workloads 2003 VLDB 9.4719326e-05
2,142 Pessimistic Cardinality Estimation: Tighter Upper Bounds for Intermediate Join Cardinalities 2019 SIGMOD 9.4507296e-05
2,165 Self-Tuning, GPU-Accelerated Kernel Density Models for Multidimensional Selectivity Estimation 2015 SIGMOD 9.389622e-05
2,219 SkinnerDB: Regret-Bounded Query Evaluation via Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 9.2623533e-05
2,249 Orca: A Modular Query Optimizer Architecture for Big Data 2014 SIGMOD 9.2034693e-05
2,356 Consistently Estimating the Selectivity of Conjuncts of Predicates 2005 VLDB 8.9620762e-05
2,364 Deep Learning Models for Selectivity Estimation of Multi-Attribute Queries 2020 SIGMOD 8.9554751e-05
2,501 DBEst: Revisiting Approximate Query Processing Engines with Machine Learning Models 2019 SIGMOD 8.6453446e-05
2,835 Applying the Golden Rule of Sampling for Query Estimation 2001 SIGMOD 8.0448428e-05
2,841 Selectivity Estimation in Extensible Databases - A Neural Network Approach 1998 VLDB 8.0287389e-05
2,969 Estimating Join Selectivities using Bandwidth-Optimized Kernel Density Models 2017 VLDB 7.7974762e-05
3,053 Multiple Join Size Estimation by Virtual Domains (extended abstract) 1993 PODS 7.64969e-05
3,269 iBTune: Individualized Buffer Tuning for Large-scale Cloud Databases 2019 VLDB 7.2998062e-05
3,944 AQP++: Connecting Approximate Query Processing With Aggregate Precomputation for Interactive Analytics 2018 SIGMOD 6.6078243e-05
3,954 Efficiently Approximating Selectivity Functions using Low Overhead Regression Models 2020 VLDB 6.5926838e-05
4,097 The Case for a Learned Sorting Algorithm 2020 SIGMOD 6.4551616e-05
4,174 Computation Reuse in Analytics Job Service at Microsoft 2018 SIGMOD 6.3856219e-05
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Semantically Similar Papers

Overall Rank Paper Year Venue Pagerank
5,469 Learned Cardinality Estimation for Similarity Queries 2021 SIGMOD 5.4898192e-05
806 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.00016434274
4,417 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB 6.2037371e-05
6,383 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 5.0884322e-05
684 Towards a Robust Query Optimizer: A Principled and Practical Approach 2005 SIGMOD 0.00018179769
1,638 Cardinality Estimation in DBMS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Evaluation 2022 VLDB 0.00011049779
2,083 Towards a Learning Optimizer for Shared Clouds 2019 VLDB 9.5834572e-05
7,221 Speeding Up End-to-end Query Execution via Learning-based Progressive Cardinality Estimation 2023 SIGMOD 4.797194e-05
3,266 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 7.3074684e-05
3,449 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 7.0824319e-05