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Are We Ready For Learned Cardinality Estimation?

Summary: Assess readiness of learned cardinality estimators for production; static workloads yield gains, but training/inference costs are high. Dynamic updates hurt accuracy; sensitivity to correlation, skew, and domain shifts; emphasizes cost control and trustworthiness. (summarized by gpt-5-nano on Feb 09 2026)

Paper ID
12352
Venue
VLDB
Year
2021
Pagerank
0.00012504851
Overall Rank
1,053 | 92.69%
DOI
10.14778/3461535.3461552

Incoming Non-self Citations Over Time

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Incoming Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 60 citing papers.

Rank Citing Paper Year Venue Pagerank
1,164 Cardinality Estimation in DBMS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Evaluation 2022 VLDB 0.00011978719
1,371 Balsa: Learning a Query Optimizer Without Expert Demonstrations 2022 SIGMOD 0.00011100806
1,931 Flow-Loss: Learning Cardinality Estimates That Matter 2021 VLDB 9.5483519e-05
1,976 FLAT: Fast, Lightweight and Accurate Method for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 9.4645971e-05
2,506 Lero: A Learning-to-Rank Query Optimizer 2023 VLDB 8.5603022e-05
2,533 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 8.5233704e-05
2,662 Fauce: Fast and Accurate Deep Ensembles with Uncertainty for Cardinality Estimation 2021 VLDB 8.344893e-05
2,688 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 8.3172831e-05
3,475 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB 7.4606119e-05
3,640 FACE: A Normalizing Flow based Cardinality Estimator 2022 VLDB 7.3040801e-05
4,445 Lightweight and Accurate Cardinality Estimation by Neural Network Gaussian Process 2022 SIGMOD 6.7542989e-05
4,555 ALECE: An Attention-based Learned Cardinality Estimator for SPJ Queries on Dynamic Workloads 2024 VLDB 6.6989559e-05
4,581 Kepler: Robust Learning for Faster Parametric Query Optimization 2023 SIGMOD 6.6913226e-05
4,858 AutoSteer: Learned Query Optimization for Any SQL Database 2023 VLDB 6.5410955e-05
5,477 SafeBound: A Practical System for Generating Cardinality Bounds 2023 SIGMOD 6.2718956e-05
5,503 Eraser: Eliminating Performance Regression on Learned Query Optimizer 2024 VLDB 6.2627904e-05
5,640 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 6.2029974e-05
5,696 A Comparative Study and Component Analysis of Query Plan Representation Techniques in ML4DB Studies 2024 VLDB 6.1834438e-05
6,258 Breaking It Down: An In-depth Study of Index Advisors 2024 VLDB 5.9996908e-05
6,282 How Good are Learned Cost Models, Really? Insights from Query Optimization Tasks 2025 SIGMOD 5.9906069e-05
6,313 Detect, Distill and Update: Learned DB Systems Facing Out of Distribution Data 2023 SIGMOD 5.976279e-05
6,370 LMSFC: A Novel Multidimensional Index based on Learned Monotonic Space Filling Curves 2023 VLDB 5.9620077e-05
6,373 PilotScope: Steering Databases with Machine Learning Drivers 2024 VLDB 5.9616981e-05
6,594 ASM: Harmonizing Autoregressive Model, Sampling, and Multi-dimensional Statistics Merging for Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 5.8870191e-05
6,698 Speeding Up End-to-end Query Execution via Learning-based Progressive Cardinality Estimation 2023 SIGMOD 5.8569921e-05
6,970 Refactoring Index Tuning Process with Benefit Estimation 2024 VLDB 5.7967533e-05
7,092 Selectivity Functions of Range Queries are Learnable* 2022 SIGMOD 5.7588694e-05
7,175 Learning to be a Statistician: Learned Estimator for Number of Distinct Values 2022 VLDB 5.73923e-05
7,470 dbET: Execution Time Distribution-based Plan Selection 2023 SIGMOD 5.6725434e-05
7,527 Machine Learning for Cloud Data Systems: the Progress so far and the Path Forward 2021 VLDB 5.6594921e-05
7,644 CAMAL: Optimizing LSM-trees via Active Learning 2024 SIGMOD 5.6327117e-05
7,912 PerfGuard: Deploying ML-for-Systems without Performance Regressions, Almost! 2021 VLDB 5.587029e-05
8,182 PARQO: Penalty-Aware Robust Plan Selection in Query Optimization 2024 VLDB 5.5385661e-05
8,443 WISK: A Workload-aware Learned Index for Spatial Keyword Queries 2023 SIGMOD 5.4946575e-05
8,561 HAP: An Efficient Hamming Space Index Based on Augmented Pigeonhole Principle 2022 SIGMOD 5.4714744e-05
8,738 Optimizing the cloud? Don't train models. Build oracles! 2024 CIDR 5.4386638e-05
8,856 One Seed, Two Birds: A Unified Learned Structure for Exact and Approximate Counting 2024 SIGMOD 5.4214637e-05
9,113 PACE: Poisoning Attacks on Learned Cardinality Estimation 2024 SIGMOD 5.3795816e-05
9,574 ShadowAQP: Efficient Approximate Group-by and Join Query via Attribute-oriented Sample Size Allocation and Data Generation 2023 VLDB 5.3137102e-05
9,608 Efficient Query Re-optimization with Judicious Subquery Selections 2023 SIGMOD 5.3067619e-05
9,734 Still Asking: How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2025 VLDB 5.2802856e-05
9,840 Machine Unlearning in Learned Databases: An Experimental Analysis 2024 SIGMOD 5.2620192e-05
9,843 Path-centric Cardinality Estimation for Subgraph Matching 2025 VLDB 5.2617062e-05
9,872 Color: A Framework for Applying Graph Coloring to Subgraph Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 5.2547389e-05
9,873 PRICE: A Pretrained Model for Cross-Database Cardinality Estimation 2025 VLDB 5.2547389e-05
9,959 An Elephant Under The Microscope: Analyzing The Interaction Of Optimizer Components In PostgreSQL 2025 SIGMOD 5.2142386e-05
10,014 BEE: Towards Redundancy Reduction via Block-Separator Decomposition for Subgraph Matching 2026 SIGMOD 5.1725247e-05
10,038 Understanding Robustness Issues of Updatable Learned Indexes: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 5.1725247e-05
10,125 Understanding and Detecting Query Performance Regression in Practical Index Tuning: [Experiments & Analysis] 2026 SIGMOD 5.1725247e-05
10,149 CorrBound: Cardinality Estimation Accounting for Inter- and Intra-relation Correlations 2026 SIGMOD 5.1725247e-05
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Outgoing Citations (Sorted by Pagerank)

Showing 50 of 52 cited papers.

Citations counted here include only citations to other VLDB/SIGMOD/CIDR/PODS papers in this database.

Rank Cited Paper Year Venue Pagerank
20 How Good Are Query Optimizers, Really? 2016 VLDB 0.00058294381
35 Improved Histograms for Selectivity Estimation of Range Predicates 1996 SIGMOD 0.00048862242
37 Accurate Estimation Of The Number Of Tuples Satisfying A Condition 1984 SIGMOD 0.00048770736
45 The Case for Learned Index Structures 2018 SIGMOD 0.0004530684
75 Practical Selectivity Estimation through Adaptive Sampling 1990 SIGMOD 0.00037396456
86 Learned Cardinalities: Estimating Correlated Joins with Deep Learning 2019 CIDR 0.0003577267
100 Selectivity Estimation Without the Attribute Value Independence Assumption 1997 VLDB 0.00034549997
120 Equi-Depth Histograms For Estimating Selectivity Factors For Multi-Dimensional Queries 1988 SIGMOD 0.00032260989
157 Neo: A Learned Query Optimizer 2019 VLDB 0.00028782395
167 Wavelet-Based Histograms for Selectivity Estimation 1998 SIGMOD 0.000277743
221 Adaptive Selectivity Estimation Using Query Feedback 1994 SIGMOD 0.00024405057
274 Selectivity Estimation using Probabilistic Models 2001 SIGMOD 0.00022678252
328 DeepDB: Learn from Data, not from Queries! 2020 VLDB 0.00021121613
334 An End-to-End Automatic Cloud Database Tuning System Using Deep Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 0.00020961385
360 STHoles: A Multidimensional Workload-Aware Histogram 2001 SIGMOD 0.00020269545
387 Preventing Bad Plans by Bounding the Impact of Cardinality Estimation Errors 2009 VLDB 0.00019538003
411 Deep Unsupervised Cardinality Estimation 2020 VLDB 0.00019014394
438 Self-tuning Histograms: Building Histograms Without Looking at Data 1999 SIGMOD 0.00018515832
452 Apache Calcite: A Foundational Framework for Optimized Query Processing Over Heterogeneous Data Sources 2018 SIGMOD 0.00018289051
462 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.0001813892
524 NeuroCard: One Cardinality Estimator for All Tables 2021 VLDB 0.00017177356
611 Wander Join: Online Aggregation via Random Walks 2016 SIGMOD 0.00015865071
685 Independence is Good: Dependency-Based Histogram Synopses for High-Dimensional Data 2001 SIGMOD 0.00015100765
702 Cardinality Estimation Done Right: Index-Based Join Sampling 2017 CIDR 0.00014941084
715 Selectivity Estimation for Range Predicates using Lightweight Models 2019 VLDB 0.0001480646
790 VerdictDB: Universalizing Approximate Query Processing 2018 SIGMOD 0.00014039534
837 Approximating Multi-Dimensional Aggregate Range Queries Over Real Attributes 2000 SIGMOD 0.00013759323
1,081 Lightweight Graphical Models for Selectivity Estimation Without Independence Assumptions 2011 VLDB 0.00012387181
1,187 QuickSel: Quick Selectivity Learning with Mixture Models 2020 SIGMOD 0.00011849604
1,250 Sampling-Based Query Re-Optimization 2016 SIGMOD 0.00011563119
1,489 Self-Tuning, GPU-Accelerated Kernel Density Models for Multidimensional Selectivity Estimation 2015 SIGMOD 0.00010670879
1,524 Cardinality Estimation: An Experimental Survey 2018 VLDB 0.00010563941
1,526 Improved Selectivity Estimation by Combining Knowledge from Sampling and Synopses 2018 VLDB 0.00010560232
1,542 Pessimistic Cardinality Estimation: Tighter Upper Bounds for Intermediate Join Cardinalities 2019 SIGMOD 0.00010485163
1,606 Deep Learning Models for Selectivity Estimation of Multi-Attribute Queries 2020 SIGMOD 0.00010308107
1,647 Global Optimization of Histograms 2001 SIGMOD 0.00010196455
1,692 Orca: A Modular Query Optimizer Architecture for Big Data 2014 SIGMOD 0.00010090713
1,711 SkinnerDB: Regret-Bounded Query Evaluation via Reinforcement Learning 2019 SIGMOD 0.00010036767
1,901 DBEst: Revisiting Approximate Query Processing Engines with Machine Learning Models 2019 SIGMOD 9.6066443e-05
1,942 Consistently Estimating the Selectivity of Conjuncts of Predicates 2005 VLDB 9.5209948e-05
2,097 SASH: A Self-Adaptive Histogram Set for Dynamically Changing Workloads 2003 VLDB 9.242975e-05
2,185 Estimating Join Selectivities using Bandwidth-Optimized Kernel Density Models 2017 VLDB 9.0583954e-05
2,277 Selectivity Estimation in Extensible Databases - A Neural Network Approach 1998 VLDB 8.8962393e-05
2,460 Applying the Golden Rule of Sampling for Query Estimation 2001 SIGMOD 8.6211018e-05
2,945 Multiple Join Size Estimation by Virtual Domains (extended abstract) 1993 PODS 7.9899955e-05
3,150 Efficiently Approximating Selectivity Functions using Low Overhead Regression Models 2020 VLDB 7.7621739e-05
3,168 iBTune: Individualized Buffer Tuning for Large-scale Cloud Databases 2019 VLDB 7.7448853e-05
3,315 AQP++: Connecting Approximate Query Processing With Aggregate Precomputation for Interactive Analytics 2018 SIGMOD 7.5891729e-05
3,560 Computation Reuse in Analytics Job Service at Microsoft 2018 SIGMOD 7.3715168e-05
3,825 The Case for a Learned Sorting Algorithm 2020 SIGMOD 7.1511577e-05
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Semantically Similar Papers

Overall Rank Paper Year Venue Pagerank
4,745 Learned Cardinality Estimation for Similarity Queries 2021 SIGMOD 6.5993019e-05
462 An End-to-End Learning-based Cost Estimator 2020 VLDB 0.0001813892
3,475 Robust Query Driven Cardinality Estimation under Changing Workloads 2023 VLDB 7.4606119e-05
5,640 Sample-Efficient Cardinality Estimation Using Geometric Deep Learning 2024 VLDB 6.2029974e-05
567 Towards a Robust Query Optimizer: A Principled and Practical Approach 2005 SIGMOD 0.00016486291
1,164 Cardinality Estimation in DBMS: A Comprehensive Benchmark Evaluation 2022 VLDB 0.00011978719
1,468 Towards a Learning Optimizer for Shared Clouds 2019 VLDB 0.00010750589
6,698 Speeding Up End-to-end Query Execution via Learning-based Progressive Cardinality Estimation 2023 SIGMOD 5.8569921e-05
2,533 Learned Cardinality Estimation: An In-depth Study 2022 SIGMOD 8.5233704e-05
2,688 Learned Cardinality Estimation: A Design Space Exploration and A Comparative Evaluation 2022 VLDB 8.3172831e-05